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В СОСТАВ РФ ВОЙДУТ: Новороссия, Белоруссия, Приднестровье, Абхазия (Экспресс-газета, 2012)

Оригинал взят у komi_permyak в В СОСТАВ РФ ВОЙДУТ: Новороссия, Белоруссия, Приднестровье, Абхазия (Экспресс-газета, 2012)
What Russia Could Look Like in 2035, if Putin Gets His Wish. Sorry, Europe: It ain't a pretty picture. "Экспресс газета" (09.07.2012): Россия поменяет Кавказ на Белоруссию и Украину (3 карты). 10 places that would welcome a Putin landgrab, and 10 parts of Russia that want the hell out // Экспресс газета и Foreign Policy. 04.06.2014.

bear_Finland_2011_she-bear_ph_Michel_Giaccaglia
ФОТО: медведица в финнском лесу, (с) Michel_Giaccaglia

"Мокшанский полк на сопках Маньчжурии"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EafHZcxi2Q
"На сопках Маньчжурии", 1906 г., вальс капельмейстера 214-го резервного Мокшанского пехотного полка Ильи Алексеевича Шатрова "Мокшанский полк на сопках Маньчжурии" (http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CD%E0_%F1%EE%EF%EA%E0%F5_%CC%E0%ED%FC%F7%E6%F3%F0%E8%E8), посвящённый погибшим в тяжелейших боях между Мукденом и Ляояном (Мукденское сражение).
Поёт Юлия Александровна Запольская (Yulya Whitney, 1919-13.08.1965)

Россия поменяет Кавказ на Белоруссию и Украину // Экспресс газета. №27 (908). 09.07.2012.
http://www.eg.ru/daily/politics/32691
Учредитель: ЗАО «ИД «Комсомольская правда». © ЗАО «Экспресс газета», 2012
Опубликовано 09 Июля 2012 г. Номер 27 (908)
Подготовил Артем СТОЦКИЙ
Проанализировав серию открытых источников ЦРУ, ГРУ и ряда исследовательских институтов, а также работы Элвина ТОФФЛЕРА, Збигнева БЖЕЗИНСКОГО и Сэмюэля ХАНТИНГТОНА, геополитические эксперты составили вероятную карту Европы образца 2035 года.

Карта № 1 - Западная Европа
map_war_Express_Gazetta_2012_07_09_www_eg_ru_1_Western_Europe

Территориальные изменения в Европе начнутся с Британских островов. В 2013 году, согласно референдуму, от Великобритании может отделиться Шотландия. Это даст толчок для роста сепаратистских настроений в Ольстере, что закончится объединением всей Ирландии. И, таким образом, само слово Великобритания потеряет смысл.
Усиливающийся финансово-экономический кризис уже запустил процесс децентрализации в Испании. Баски и каталонцы считают, что без Мадрида выжить им будет значительно легче. Не за горами появление двух новых государств - Страны басков и Каталонии. Уход этих областей неминуемо заставит Испанию перейти на конфедеративное устройство.
Мультикультурный крах уже претерпевает Франция. Страна не смогла переварить и ассимилировать дикое цветное население своих бывших колоний. Ситуация ухудшается с каждым годом. Не исключено, что по типу 13-го квартала в Париже правительству придется решать этнические проблемы путем «отсечения» части территории и последующей депортации туда цветного населения. Такая территория уже складывается вокруг Марселя - Пьемонт и часть Южной Бургундии. Не исключено, что там к 2035 году появится некое арабское исламистское государство.
Часть Аквитании отойдет баскам, а население Лотарингии с центром в Страсбурге на федеративных основах войдет в состав Германии. В этой ситуации вполне вероятно, что независимости смогут добиться и корсиканцы.
Еще быстрее Франции может посыпаться Бельгия. Страна мирно разделится по национальному признаку между фламандцами и валлонами. Фламандцы еще и войдут в союз с Нидерландами.

Карта №2 - Центральная Европа
map_war_Express_Gazetta_2012_07_09_www_eg_ru_2_Central_Europe

Единая Италия разделится надвое. Деловым северянам надоест кормить ленивых южан, и страну перечеркнет граница, которая пройдет по южной оконечности Тосканы и Эмилии-Романьи. Бедный юг не сможет удержать самодостаточные Сардинию и Сицилию. Острова провозгласят независимость.
Большие изменения ожидаются и на Балканах. С усилением исламского фактора в Европе возникнет лобби по ликвидации государственности Боснии и Герцеговины. Территория страны может быть разделена между Сербией и Хорватией. В качестве компромисса для Турции произойдет политическое объединение Албании, которая, помимо Косово, скорее всего получит западные регионы Македонии.
Венгрия тоже расширит свои границы. При благоприятной политической конъюнктуре она вернет себе часть румынской Трансильвании и территорию современной Воеводины на территории Сербии - Северный Банат.
Участь Польши, наоборот, печальна. Страна потеряет этнические немецкие земли - Померанию и Силезию, а при условии договоренностей между Москвой и Берлином - также и свои северо-восточные регионы. Россия, правда, тоже не удержит Калининградскую область и отдаст ее немцам.
К Западной Украине от Польши может отойти часть территории современных Подкарпатского и Люблинского воеводств. Вместе с этими землями возникнет государство Галичина со столицей во Львове.
Из других западных регионов современной Украины независимость могут обрести русины, в то время как Черновицкая область в качестве компромисса получит возможность оказаться в составе Румынии. Также Румыния за потерю Трансильвании может получить Молдавию без Приднестровья, которое отойдет России, и территорию южной части Одесской области.

Карта №3 - Восточная Европа
map_war_Express_Gazetta_2012_07_09_www_eg_ru_3_Eastern_Europe_and_RF

В результате ослабления европейского единства часть территорий Прибалтики с доминирующим русским населением - район Нарвы в Эстонии, восточная Латвия с центром в Даугавпилсе - присоединятся к России. Белоруссия как государство исчезнет и станет этнической провинцией в составе России.
При дальнейшем политическом расколе Украины от Киева к Москве перейдут Донбасс, большая часть Южной Украины и Крым.
Огромные изменения коснутся Кавказа. Вряд ли России удастся удержать северокавказские республики. В первую очередь это касается Дагестана, Чечни и Ингушетии. Вопрос только, в какой форме с ними придется расстаться и по чьей инициативе. Вероятнее всего, отделение может произойти по-сталински - с отсечением наиболее густонаселенных горных регионов, при этом не по существующим административным границам, а, например, по Тереку.
Абхазия, с учетом ее незначительного населения, может войти административно в состав Краснодарского края. Грузии, при условии установления там марионеточного режима, в качестве компромисса будет возвращена Южная Осетия.
Решение карабахского вопроса возможно только при установлении общей границы между Россией и Арменией. Для этого придется создать «транспортный коридор», который разделит Грузию на Западную и Восточную, отделяя как минимум Кахетию от Тбилиси.
В этом случае следует учесть турецкий фактор. При политической сдаче Карабаха Анкара потребует определенные преференции. Это могут быть территориальные уступки, например в Болгарии, где значительна доля турецкого населения.
Эксперты, составившие карту, советуют не воспринимать ее слишком серьезно и не ждать 100-процентного совпадения. Подобные территориальные изменения возможны только при совпадении огромного количества факторов. Однако вероятность того, что в 2035 году политическая карта Европы будет скроена по этому образцу, довольно велика.



Как (если верить российским СМИ) будет выглядеть Европа к 2035 году // MixedNews. 11.06.2014.
http://sokura.livejournal.com/4189175.html
Перевод для MixedNews — Наталья Головаха
В 2012 году российская «Экспресс газета» опубликовала несколько карт, отражающих её видение Европы через 23 года. Принимая во внимание нынешнюю напряжённость на Украине и в других странах, прогноз оказывается настораживающе прозорливым, хотя прошла всего пара лет.
Издание утверждает, что карты были составлены на основании «открытых источников» ЦРУ, ГРУ, исследовательских институтов, а также работ Элвина Тоффлера, Збигнева Бжезинского и Сэмюэля Хантингтона. Заявление в лучшем случае сомнительное.
Не удивительно, что, выражаясь словами Фрэнка Якобса из Foreign Policy, карты представляют собой иллюстрацию надежд и тревог, по крайней мере, некоторых россиян.
Пугает, что на картах российскими территориями изображены Крым (что уже случилось) и восточноукраинский Донбасс, где в данный момент разворачивается что-то вроде гражданской войны.
Европейские страны показаны разделившимися по национальному признаку, в основном, из-за экономической нестабильности и нарастающего евроскептицизма. Шотландия становится независимой (что и происходит на самом деле), а Ирландия объединяется. От Испании откалывается Страна Басков, оставшаяся часть государства предстаёт в виде Испанской Конфедерации. Франция теряет свои территории, отдав часть из них баскам. Она переживает «мультикультурный коллапс», не справляясь с ассимиляцией иммигрантов из своих бывших африканских колоний. Это приводит к образованию «Арабского Пьемонта» на нынешнем юго-востоке страны. Бельгия также разламывается по национально-языковым границам.
В Центральной Европе Италия раскалывается надвое, Босния-Герцеговина исчезает, поглощаясь Хорватией и Сербией. Турции отходят Албания и Косово.
А вот Польшу можно только пожалеть. Когда-то бывшая надёжным другом славян, затем верным союзником коммунистов, а теперь подпевающая Западу, Польша наказана за своё нерасположение к матушке-России расчленением. На западе Германия требует обратно прибрежную Померанию и внутриматериковую Силезию. Берлин также возвращает Восточную Пруссию, вынудив и саму Россию отказаться от северной части этой территории. Кажется странным, что Москва добровольно делится своей самой западной областью. Однако сделанный акцент превыше незыблемости российских границ: донести до Польши всё неразумие её ухода из-под крыла Кремля.
Карпатская Русь, ныне принадлежащая Словакии и Украине, объявляет независимость.
В Восточной Европе распад ЕС позволяет России взять под контроль области с русским большинством в прибалтийских странах. Эстония утрачивает область вокруг по большей части русского города Нарвы, Латвия теряет регион Двинска, окружающий небольшой городок Даугавпилс. Беларусь становится частью России.
Эта картографическая фантазия проливает бальзам на внешнеполитические раны России, предсказывая ей победы, а «врагам» – поражение. Однако какой бы смешной она сейчас не выглядела, по сравнению с тем, что было два года назад, ситуация, похоже, действительно развивается в этом направлении.
Источник перевод для MixedNews:

Russian Armed Forces // YouTube sairagon1988. 02.10.2012.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSClU9nRWyE

What Europe will look like in 2035 if Russian tabloids have their way // io9.com. 09.06.2014.
http://io9.com/what-europe-will-look-like-in-2035-if-russian-tabloids-1587988556
map_war_Express_Gazetta_2012_07_09_www_eg_ru_two_maps
Two years ago, the Russian tabloid Express Gazeta published a series of maps depicting its vision of Europe 23 years hence. Given the recent tensions in Ukraine and elsewhere, the maps are proving disturbingly prescient a mere two years later — which hasn't gone unnoticed by Russian nationalists.
According to Express Gazeta, the maps were compiled after analyzing "open source" information from the CIA, GRU (Russian intelligence), and a number of research institutes, along with Alvin Toffler, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Samuel Huntington. It's a dubious claim at best.
Not surprisingly, the maps are, in the words of Foreign Policy's Frank Jacobs, "a cartographic illustration of Russian wish fulfillment, reflecting the hopes and frustrations of at least a small segment of Russian public opinion." And indeed, though the maps were compiled in 2012, a nationalist Russian blog recently republished them with renewed enthusiasm given the events in Ukraine.
Eerily, the maps show an annexed Crimea (which has happened), along with an absorbed Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, an area that's currently experiencing something akin to a proto-civil war.
What Europe Will Look Like In 2035 If Russian Tabloids Have Their Way4567
Elsewhere, European nations appear divided along ethnic lines, primarily the result of renewed tensions wrought by economic turmoil, burgeoning nativism, and growing EU skepticism. It shows an independent Scotland (which is actually happening), and a united Ireland. The Basque Country has split from Spain, leaving the rest of the country as a Spanish Confederacy. France also loses some territory to the Basques, but experiences "multicultural collapse" due to the failure to assimilate immigrants from France's former African colonies, resulting in the creation of an "Arab Piedmont" in the south east. Belgium also splits along ethnic-linguistic lines.
What Europe Will Look Like In 2035 If Russian Tabloids Have Their Way89101112...14
In central Europe, Italy splits in two, Bosnia-Herzogovina is wiped out and absorbed by Croatia and Serbia, and Turkey obtains Albania and Kosovo. As for Poland:
But poor Poland. Once a firm Slavic friend, then a staunch communist ally, now a wannabe Westie, Poland is punished for its disloyalty to Mother Russia by dismemberment. In the west, Germany reclaims coastal Pomerania and inland Silesia. Berlin even reabsorbs East Prussia, forcing Russia itself to abandon the northern half of that territory. It seems strange that Russia would willingly part with its westernmost territory, but the point being made takes precedence over the sacredness of Russia's borders: to drive home to Warsaw the foolishness of stepping out from under Russia's protective umbrella.
Meanwhile, Subcarpathian Ruthenia declares independence, an area that runs along the Slovak-Ukraine border.
What Europe Will Look Like In 2035 If Russian Tabloids Have Their Way1516
And in Eastern Europe, a disintegrating European Union allows Russia to take control of Russian-majority areas from the Baltic states. Estonia loses the Narva District, an area surrounding the mainly ethnic-Russian town of Narva, Latvia loses the Dvinsk Region, around the small city of Daugavpils, while Moscow subordinates Belarus into a region of Russia.
Jacobs concludes:
This cartographic fantasy panders to Russia's foreign-policy frustrations by predicting future defeats for its "enemies" and future victories for itself. If 2035 might seem a long time to wait, that too is par for the course: Predictions gain traction the further into the future they're placed.
Laugh if you want. However ludicrous this map might seem now, compared with the way things looked back in 2012, the situation on the ground sure seems to be moving in this direction.
Read a more detailed analysis at Foreign Policy.

bear_roaring_www_nastol_com_ua

"Polite People" Ops in Crimea / Операция "Вежливые Люди". Отчет по итогам выполнения задач отряда № 0900 в период с 22 февраля по 28 марта 2014 года на территории АР Крым // YouTube promasster. 11.04.2014.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHN-C0ZP_SQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pN4hx0ODiFQ
https://www.facebook.com/alexander.sobianin/posts/718603398202617
http://vladimir-krm.livejournal.com/1528418.html
Отчет по итогам выполнения задач отряда № 0900 в период с 22 февраля по 28 марта 2014 года на территории АР Крым

What Russia Could Look Like in 2035, if Putin Gets His Wish. Sorry, Europe: It ain't a pretty picture // Foreign Policy. 04.06.2014.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/04/what_russia_could_look_like_in_2035_if_putin_gets_his_wish_ukraine_irredentism
Photo by DMITRI ASTAKHOV/AFP/Getty Images
Maps via Express Gazetta: www.eg.ru/daily/politics/32691
BY Frank Jacobs (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/profiles/Frank-Jacobs)
JUNE 4, 2014

Argument

Russia's foreign policy has two intertwined reflexes: Bad things happen when Russia is no longer allowed to protect its neighbors, and worse things happen when those neighbors look elsewhere for protection.
But it may be that Russia has plans for these unruly and ungrateful neighbors. A series of maps - first published by the Moscow-based newspaper Express Gazeta in July 2012 (http://www.eg.ru/daily/politics/32691), well before the outbreak of the current Ukrainian crisis - has recently resurfaced (http://springtimeofnations.blogspot.be/2014/04/donetsk-rebels-novorossiya-fits-russian.html), and the maps appear to reveal Moscow's ultimate designs in Ukraine and Russia's near abroad. By 2035, Russia will not only have annexed Crimea (check!) and the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, currently hotly contested between forces loyal to Kiev and pro-Russian insurgents. The Kremlin will have also absorbed the tsarist-era territories of "New Russia" in southern Ukraine, linking up with Transnistria, the eastern sliver of Moldova loyal to Moscow, and thereby cutting off Kiev's access to the Black Sea.
It's doubtful the map represents Russian President Vladimir Putin's actual game plan. Express Gazeta, probably best described as a sensationalist tabloid, said unnamed "geopolitical experts" drew the map based on "open source" information from research institutes, as well as (oddly) from the works of strategists Alvin Toffler, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and Samuel Huntington.
Instead, the map should be read as a cartographic illustration of Russian wish fulfillment, reflecting the hopes and frustrations of at least a small segment of Russian public opinion. Some in Russia, the map seems to say, hope Europe in 2035 looks fragmented, is increasingly Islamized, and suffers under a resurgent Germany. None of this would happen, the article hints, if Russia were still the superpower it was before the 1991 Soviet collapse.
In his 1899 book, The Interpretation of Dreams, Sigmund Freud defined wish fulfillment as the satisfaction of repressed desires through unconscious thought processes such as dreams, daydreams, and hallucinations. This map is the daydream of a Russia frustrated with its diminished place in the world, exacting satisfaction from its European neighbors by acting out its geopolitical fantasies.

Map 1. Western Europe

In an attitude that hasn't really changed since communism, and perhaps has been amplified by anti-Western resentment since the end of the Soviet Union, Russia sees Western Europe as morally and economically bankrupt -- decadent and near collapse. Hence the breakup of almost all major European states, starting with Great Britain. After Scotland chooses independence in the 2013 referendum, Northern Ireland feels the pull of the Republic and joins a united Ireland, effectively reducing the United Kingdom to England and Wales.
According to Express Gazeta, the recent economic crisis has sped up the decentralization of Spain, which will see Catalonia and the Basque Country split off, leaving the rest of Spain to cohabitate in a Spanish Confederacy.
Neighboring France loses some territory to the Basques, but the main story is the "multicultural collapse" due to the failure to assimilate the "wild people of color" -- immigrants from France's former colonies. The map suggests that the situation will get worse to the point that the French government will have to deport ethnic minorities to an area in its southeast called "Arab Piedmont" -- an Islamic foothold, presumably with Marseille as its capital. (For good measure, Corsica goes it alone, and Germany reannexes Alsace and Lorraine.)
Belgium is also a goner, split along ethnic-linguistic lines. The Flemish in the north join with the Netherlands in a Dutch Union, but the map ungenerously keeps French-speaking Wallonia out of French hands.

Map 2. Central Europe

Italy also splits in two, along economic lines: the Northern League controls the country to about the Tuscany-Lazio border. Rome is part of South Italy, which is too poor to prevent the secession of Sardinia and Sicily.
Bosnia-Herzegovina -- a product of U.S. diplomacy -- is wiped out, divided between Croatia and Serbia. In compensation, Turkey obtains the enlargement of (mainly Muslim) Albania with Kosovo, and adjacent parts of Serbia and Macedonia, creating a Greater Albania. Revanchist Hungary is finally able to regain some of the territory it lost after the fall of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1918, and it reannexes Vojvodina from Serbia and part of Transylvania from Romania.
But poor Poland. Once a firm Slavic friend, then a staunch communist ally, now a wannabe Westie, Poland is punished for its disloyalty to Mother Russia by dismemberment. In the west, Germany reclaims coastal Pomerania and inland Silesia. Berlin even reabsorbs East Prussia, forcing Russia itself to abandon the northern half of that territory. It seems strange that Russia would willingly part with its westernmost territory, but the point being made takes precedence over the sacredness of Russia's borders: to drive home to Warsaw the foolishness of stepping out from under Russia's protective umbrella.
Last for this part of Europe -- and also least -- a tiny fragment of western Ukraine declares independence. Once the easternmost part of Czechoslovakia, Subcarpathian Ruthenia had the distinction of being independent for a single day before Hungary overran it in the run-up to World War II. Perhaps this is where Andy Warhol, an ethnic Ruthenian, got his concept of "Fifteen minutes of fame"?

Map 3. Eastern Europe

A disintegrating European Union enables Russia to wrest control of Russian-majority areas from the Baltic states. Estonia loses the Narva District, an area surrounding the mainly ethnic-Russian town of Narva, and Latvia loses the Dvinsk Region, around the small city of Daugavpils. And Moscow subordinates Belarus into a region of Russia.
Like Poland, Ukraine is punished for its Western sins: Not only does Russia annex its east and south, but its west splits off as independent Galicia (which even manages to grab an eastern corner of Poland).
To compensate for the loss of Transylvania to Hungary, Romania gets Moldova -- except for the part that goes to Russia. Bulgaria, which has been fleeing from its traditional place by Russia's side into the embrace of Brussels -- is punished by Turkey's chomping off of an area around the Bulgarian port city of Burgas, to accommodate Bulgaria's Turkish minority.

Caucasus

What does Russian wish fulfillment look like in the Caucasus? Strangely, the region's northeast sees the emergence of a Caucasian Emirate. Perhaps this is a strategic retreat, minimizing the loss of territory and the spread of Islamist separatism to Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Dagestan.
Georgia also pays the price for standing up to Russia and cozying up to the West: Russia straight out annexes the renegade province of Abkhazia -- and that's if the Georgians agree to play nice, because on this map they regain control over South Ossetia, that other Russian protectorate on their soil. But that's not the end of Georgia's troubles. To establish a lifeline to its ally Armenia, Russia extorts a corridor straight across Georgian territory, de facto dividing it into West Georgia and Kakheti.
The Express Gazeta article wisely includes the caveat that "not everything" on this map will happen exactly as predicted. Of course that's true; but it's also a bit disingenuous. Humans are conditioned to trust maps. This cartographic fantasy panders to Russia's foreign-policy frustrations by predicting future defeats for its "enemies" and future victories for itself. If 2035 might seem a long time to wait, that too is par for the course: Predictions gain traction the further into the future they're placed.
Laugh if you want. However ludicrous this map might seem now, compared with the way things looked back in 2012, the situation on the ground sure seems to be moving in this direction.

Victory Day in Moscow 9 May 2014 (Red Alert 3 Theme - Soviet March) // YouTube BIGYARUS. 02.06.2014.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Iu0pvZP-dM
Военный парад на Красной площади в Москве. За видео спасибо RT - каналу Russia Today.
Музыка: "Soviet march" by James Hannigan from "Command and Conquer: Red Alert 3". Текст "советского марша" из американского фильма ниже.
С Днём Победы!

Take Me Home, Mother Russia. 10 places that would welcome a Putin landgrab, and 10 parts of Russia that want the hell out // Foreign Policy. 20.03.2014.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/20/ten_places_that_want_to_join_russia_ten_places_that_want_out_crimea_ukraine_south_ossetia
EPA/YURI KOCHETKOV
Feature
BY Frank Jacobs
MARCH 20, 2014
Vladimir Putin's trademark smirk, equal parts smugness and mischief, was never more appropriate than March 18 in the Kremlin's St. George Hall, when justifying Russia's lightning-speed annexation of Crimea.
Not only did Putin finally reverse his country's dramatic territorial shrinkage post Soviet Union, he did it while thumbing his nose at the West and its hypocrisy on what he called the "Kosovo precedent." How dare the United States and its allies, who supported that Serbian province's unilateral declaration of independence in 2008 in the face of Moscow's furious but futile opposition, now deny the persecuted Crimeans that same option?
Ironically, Putin's denouncement of the West's about-face also applies to Russia's own change of heart. "You cannot call the same thing black today and white tomorrow," he fumed.
But if a precedent that is imitated is no longer an exception, then self-determination might be the new rule. And Putin might want to get ready for a lot more instances of superpower-sponsored separatism.
Indeed, Russia is likely to remain the epicenter for these geopolitical tremors. But -- and this might prove more painful for Moscow soon -- there are plenty of regions, territories, and autonomous republics who want to do to Russia what Crimea did to Ukraine: get the heck out of there.
Here are the 10 likeliest comers and goers in the Kremlin's new parlor game.
Top 10 on the way in

1. Transnistria

Cutting an unlikely figure, this phantom state of roughly half a million people measures about 450 miles north to south, but is barely 15 miles across. It occupies the east bank of the Dniestr, the river that separates it from the rest of Moldova, from which this Russian-dominated region seceded in 1992 -- with a little help from the Russian Army and Cossack irregulars. And yet not even Russia recognizes Transnistria as an independent nation -- it entertains diplomatic relations only with the three other members of the Community for Democracy and Rights of Nations (CDRN), a losers' club of post-Soviet puppet states (more on the other members Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh below). On March 17, the local parliament appealed to the Russian Duma for this breakaway region to also join Russia. That might be tricky, as it is completely wedged between Moldova and Ukraine, sharing no border with Russia proper. But it works for Kaliningrad Oblast, the Russian territory sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea, and it could work for Transnistria, too.

2. Donbass

The Donets Basin, or Donbass, in Eastern Ukraine is twice the size of Massachusetts, with about 7 million inhabitants. It was a crucial industrial epicenter of the Soviet Union, a communist version of the Ruhrgebiet, the beating heart of West Germany's Wirtschaftswunder. Soviet posters proclaimed it Serdse Rossii -- the Heart of Russia. The massive concentration of steel, coal, and other heavy industries attracted Russians and other Soviet nationalities, producing a pro-Russian majority in what is the most densely populated part of Ukraine. This is the home turf of Victor Yanukovych, the former Ukrainian president whose overthrow in February sparked the current crisis, and it's the likeliest stage for any further Russian land grabs in Ukraine.

3. New Russia

The area just north of Crimea on the Ukrainian mainland was called Novorossiya, or "New Russia" after the Kremlin wrested it from Ottoman control in the 18th century and opened it up for Russian colonization. It is still heavily Russophone, especially in bigger cities like Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk, and consistently voted for the Party of Regions, whose mainstay was Yanukovych and other pro-Moscow candidates. It could conceivably be persuaded to lean toward Moscow rather than Kiev. And Russia's first military pinpricks, from Crimea into New Russia, have already been reported, with Russia occupying a gas pumping station in the town of Strilkove just north of Crimea in mid-March.

4. Abkhazia

No more than 25 miles east of Sochi, the jewel in Russia's Olympic crown, is Abkhazia -- the prettiest of the four "sleeping beauties" in Russia's near abroad (the other three frozen conflict zones being Transnistria, South Ossetia, and Nagorno Karabakh.) Like the others, this too was effectively created by the Red Army, which in 1993 helped the Abkhaz chase the Georgians from what nominally still is the western extremity of that country. As with Transnistria and South Ossetia, Abkhazia's independence is recognized by just a handful of states. If Crimea fares well as part of Russia, Abkhazia -- which has signaled approval for Crimea's secession -- might also be tempted to join.

5. South Ossetia

Another chunk out of Georgia, carved from the northern part of the country in a short, sharp Russo-Georgian war in August 2008 that saw Georgia's pro-Western president Mikheil Saakashvili nervously eat his tie on television - literally - as Russian tanks approached the capital Tblisi. Numbering just 55,000, the South Ossetians constitute the smallest of Russia's unofficial protectorates. (Fun fact: They are the descendants of the Alans, an Indo-Iranian tribe that may be the etymological source for the English name Alan.). South Ossetia, too, is increasingly turning from Georgia to Russia. And if Crimea's absorption goes well, Russia might swallow South Ossetia for dessert.

6. Belarus

What communist apparatchik still hogs the presidency of a post-Soviet republic, stubbornly choosing imperial nostalgia over ties to the outside world? Welcome to Belarus, formerly aka White Russia and Belorussia, ruled since 1994 by Alexander Lukashenko, a mustachioed Statler to Putin's Waldorf. This Slavic country is such a close political and cultural match with Russia that in 1999 the two countries signed a treaty to form a confederation (though it soon lost steam.) Any new merger would likely be sanctioned by a referendum, but in a country often dubbed "Europe's last dictatorship," such a plebiscite would be as questionable as the recent Crimean one.

7. Northern Kazakhstan

Russia remains the world's largest country, but it's down considerably in size from the days of the Soviet Union. This is mainly due to the secession of the Central Asian ‘Stans, of which Kazakhstan -- with an area of more than 1 million square miles, clocking in at four times the size of Texas -- is the largest. In Soviet times, Russians outnumbered Kazakhs in their own republic. That's no longer the case, but Russians remain in the majority in northern Kazakhstan, an enormous zone of dry, flat steppe adjacent to the Russian border. Like Crimea, this region was part of Russia proper before the Soviets transferred it. The return of that prodigal region could stir some emotions on the steppe. After all, this is the location of Russia's vital Baikonur spaceport; and no less an authority than Alexander Solzhenitsyn advocated Russia's annexation of these lands.

8. Russians in the Baltic

If and when Putin wants to pick a fight with the European Union, there is little doubt where the trouble will start -- in the three Baltic states, the only former republics of the USSR that are now EU members. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have reinvented themselves as tech-savvy mini-states, Scandinavian in ambition rather than encumbered by their Soviet past. But each is home to sizeable Russian minorities, which are in the majority in some regions and cities, and whose heartfelt nostalgia and genuine frustration are feared by the Balts and treasured by the Russians as pent-up reservoirs of political friction.

9. Nagorno Karabakh

Back in 1989, this is where the Soviet Union started to unravel, when fighting broke out between the ethnic Armenians of this enclave and the majority Azeri of the republic from which they wanted to secede. Months of vicious fighting and reciprocal massacres finally led to a stalemate that continues today, with the phantom state of Artsakh established by the victorious Armenians, in a region that officially is still part of Azerbaijan. This untenable situation has been maintained for a quarter of a century. Could Russia come to the aid of the encircled Armenians?

10. Brighton Beach, Brooklyn

Putin is only partly right when he says that Russia has a historical claim on Crimea. Russia's history in the region is only three centuries old -- before that, the Turks and Tatars ruled the roost. Perhaps a better formula for the Putin Doctrine is this: Russia has rights wherever Russians live in significant numbers. Who says that this policy needs to stop at the borders of the former Soviet Union? Maybe a few Russian trikolori burning in Brighton Beach is all the reason Vladimir Vladimirovich needs to send a few gunboats from freshly conquered Sevastopol to round the tip of Breezy Point...

* * *

Top 10 on the way out

1. Chechnya

The Caucasus is a quilt of cultures, languages, religions, grudges, and vendettas -- none so deadly as the one between Chechens and Russians. With the Soviet Union imploding, Chechnya made the mistake of trying to "do a Kosovo" by declaring its independence from Russia. The Russians would have none of it, but it took two wars to pummel the Chechens back into the fold: a ploddingly ineffective one under Yeltsin in the 1990s, and a viciously effective one under Putin over the last decade. But despite its pro-Russian leadership, separatism grows like weed in Chechnya; when Moscow directs its attention elsewhere for a while, it will blossom again. And perhaps in a more virulent form: a small, hard core of Wahhabi Chechens has been willing to use violence to establish an Emirate of the Caucasus, that would include other restless areas such as Dagestan and Ingushetia.

2. Tatarstan

The Volga is one of the great Russian landscapes, but that river laps the shores of a decidedly non-Russian entity: Tatarstan, the northernmost outpost of Islam in the world. Like many nationalities in the Soviet Union, the Tatars had their own republic, in which they were purposely made a minority. However, they now constitute just over half of the republic's 2 million people -- and it continues to grow more Muslim and Turkic, and less Russian. This has energized Tatar nationalism beyond the safe zones of social, cultural, and religious issues, even though separatism would be more than a bit tricky for a province entirely encircled by Russia.

3. Idel-Ural

The Tatars are numerous enough to contemplate going it alone, but the other non-Russian ethnicities in the wider area tend to dream of an independent Idel-Ural (Volga-Ural), the collective name for Tatarstan and five other tiny republics: Udmurtia, Mordovia, Chuvashia, Bashkortostan, and Mari-El. Their religions include Islam, Orthodoxy, and paganism and only some of their languages are mutually intelligible. But they share one important common trait: They're not Russian!

4. Kalmykia

Europe's only Buddhist state, this Russian republic of roughly 300,000 people on the western shores of the Caspian Sea is populated by the descendants of Siberian herders. The Kalmyk's unique ethnic and religious status within Russia -- and their forced russification, collectivization, and deportation -- has kept their sense of "otherness" alive. The capital, Elista, is a well-known venue of high-profile chess matches, and the Kalmyk president, Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, the head of FIDE, the International Chess Federation, is also famous for the tour of the galaxy he claimed he took in 1997 on a UFO. Could a resurgent Asian power reach out and loosen Moscow's grip on Chessland?

5. Kaliningrad

The northern part of what used to be East Prussia, Germany's easternmost province, is now Russia's westernmost district. Few Germans remain, and the region's nearly half-million people are mostly Russian. But being surrounded by prosperous EU member states may be going to their heads. Some Kaliningraders have even taken to calling their capital by its old name of Ko"nigsberg again, more to stress distance from Moscow than proximity to Berlin. Hence also the Baltic Republican Party, whose aim was greater autonomy and possibly independence, which Moscow abolished in 2003, though it has since re-formed as a "public movement."

6. Karelia

Karelia is the name of a Russian territory bordering a Finnish territory with the same name, and a shared history. Much of Russian Karelia (aka East Karelia) was Finnish before the Soviets took it from them in the Winter War of 1939-40; its inhabitants are now mainly non-Finnish newcomers. Still, some Finnish groups like ProKarelia are eager to reclaim the area, which they see as the Finnish heartland. And the fall of communism has enabled a renaissance of Finnish culture in the region, in large part fuelled by e'migre' Karelians, who could be crucial in steering the region toward a vote to loosen its ties with Moscow.

7. Komi Republic

The nomadic Komi make up barely a quarter of the million inhabitants of this Iraq-sized, mineral-rich republic in the northern reaches of European Russia. But the Russians are newbies: mainly former convicts and their descendants. If the Komi could persuade them to depart for sunnier climes, or go native and work toward an independent homeland, this mass of frozen tundra (which claims to have reserves of 242 billion tons of coal, over 600 million tons of oil and over 140 billion cubic meters of gas) could be the Saudi Arabia of the North.

8. Circassia

Before Sochi was Russian, it was the capital of the Circassians. Afterward, it became the graveyard of those who couldn't or wouldn't flee overseas. The expulsion of the Circassians from their homeland in the northwestern Caucasus is one of the lesser-known tragedies of the 19th century -- at least outside the Muslim world. Their descendants now live in Turkey, and throughout the Middle East. A nascent nationalism among these millions demands the restoration of their ancient homeland.

9. Karachay-Balkaria

A classic example or Soviet Russia's divide-and-rule policy: place the ethnically-related Balkar and Karachay peoples in "national" republics with other, less-related ethnicities. The nationalist agenda in the region reads like a DIY manual: first, divide Kabardino-Balkaria into a Kabardin and a Balkar republic and Karachay-Cherkessia into a Karachay and a Cherkess republic. Then, assemble the Balkar and Karachay parts into a single republic. Still with me? After this, unite both ethnicities into a single one. And finally, if anyone is still up for it, get the newly united Turkic republic to unite with Turkey itself -- just a short ride away across the Caspian Sea.

10. Birobidzhan

Before the Jews had Israel, they had this area of Siberia to call home, and Joseph Stalin to thank for it. Birobidzhan, east of Mongolia and bordering China, was to become the Jewish homeland. While that may not exactly have gone to plan, the republic is still officially designated the Jewish Autonomous Oblast, and Yiddish is still co-official language with Russian. There's even still about 6,000 Jews living there. Perhaps it would be wise for World Zionism to develop this option, in case something serious happens to Plan A. Another big plus: it's well outside the range of Iranian missiles.

Bonus round! Siberia

The Big One. Continent-sized. Resource-rich. And it's only lightly sprinkled with Russians - yes, it's 40 million, but that's only about two per square mile. Already busily exploited by the resource-poor and space-starved Chinese. For now, the Chinese are siphoning off oil and hauling south lumber strictly under Russian licenses. But geopolitics abhors a vacuum. And Beijing is much richer and closer by than Moscow. What's to stop China from playing the Crimea scenario on two thirds of Russia?




См. также:
[***] Геополитика США. Часть I: Неизбежная империя // Stratfor, пер. Sputnik&Pogrom. 03.06.2013.
http://komi-permyak.livejournal.com/62574.html

[***] Геополитика США. Часть II: Американская идентичность и угрозы будущего // Stratfor, пер. Sputnik&Pogrom. 21.06.2013.
http://komi-permyak.livejournal.com/61694.html

[***] Стратегическое планирование в США: военная мощь, прорывные технологии и доллар. Аналитический доклад. Александр Собянин, Марат Шибутов. // ИА REGNUM. 25.05.2012.
http://conjuncture.ru/planning_2012/

[***] Собянин А., Шибутов М. Накануне Третьей мировой войны. Россия имеет все необходимое для победы, но может и проиграть. // Аргументы недели. №2 (243). 20.01.2011.
http://conjuncture.ru/3war_3/

[***] КНИГА: "Россия в Средней Азии и на Кавказе: "центр силы" постсоветского пространства (исследование 2001 года)". Под общ. ред. А.Д. Собянина. - Пушкино: Центр стратегической конъюнктуры, 2013. - 104 с. // Центр стратегической конъюнктуры. 26.05.2013.
http://conjuncture.ru/book_sobianin-2001/
Купить на Озоне: http://www.ozon.ru/context/detail/id/26330964/

[***] Александр Собянин: Геостратегия Исламского мира и интересы России // Монография Клуба Aurora Expertum "Ислам как субъект глобальной политики". 26.06.2012.
http://conjuncture.ru/sobianin_26-06-2012_geostrategy_of_islam_and_russia

[***] КНИГА: Павлович М.П. Империализм и борьба за великие железнодорожные и морские пути будущего. 3 изд. М.: Гос. Изд., 1925. Ч. 1.
http://conjuncture.ru/sobianin_20-08-2013/
Книга о транспортно-инфраструктурной основе русского натиска, о развитии народов региона и народного хозяйства стран как о важнейшем принципе русской геополитической и геоэкономической экспансии

[***] КНИГА: Вандам А.Е. "Наше положение". СПб.: Типография А. С. Суворина, 1912 // Центр стратегической конъюнктуры. 12.08.2013.
http://conjuncture.ru/book_vandam_our-position/

[***] КНИГА: Вандам А.Е. "Величайшее из искусств. Обзор современного международного положения при свете высшей стратегии. СПб.: Типография товарищества А. С. Суворина "Новое время", 1913 // Центр стратегической конъюнктуры. 12.08.2013.
http://conjuncture.ru/book_vandam_the-greatest-of-the-arts/

[***] Владимир Путин в подсознании Запада: ГЕРР ЭКСЕЛЕНЦ! Служить будем вечно?! Массовый психоз и групповая фантазия (по Ллойду Демозу) // Forbes.ru, блог-книга Осьминог, Алексей Вишня "Политтехно" и ЖЖ коми-пермяк. 17.03.2014.
http://kramtp.info/news/474/full/id=34018

[***] Collins, John M. Military Geography for Professionals and the Public. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1988.
http://mirknig.com/knigi/military_history/1181312300-military-geography-for-professionals-and-the-public.html
http://archive.org/details/militarygeograph00collrich
http://www.potomacbooksinc.com/Books/BookDetail.aspx?productID=50061

Euromaidan_2014_03_28_2014_God_vezhlivosti_v_Rossyiyi_Samuyil_LJ_zuhel

РУССКИЕ - ВЕЖЛИВЫЕ ЛЮДИ. Взгляд из Вьетнама // YouTube sairagon1988. 22.03.2014.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTDYeeVUTnM
Отсюда:
НОВОЕ СДЕРЖИВАНИЕ РОССИИ (STRATFOR) Американская стратегия после Украины: от Эстонии до Азербайджана. From Estonia to Azerbaijan: American Strategy After Ukraine // Технополис завтра (Краматорск). Перевод ИноСМИ. 28.03.2014.
http://conjuncture.ru/stratfor-29-03-2014/

Г.В.Свиридов. Время, вперед! К 50-летию полёта в космос Юрия Гагарина, 12.04.2011.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDODu16q48I
50-летию первого полета в космос советского человека, коммуниста Юрия Алексеевича Гагарина посвящается.
"12 апреля 1961 года в Советском Союзе выведен на орбиту Земли первый в мире космический корабль-спутник "Восток" с человеком на борту.
Пилотом-космонавтом космического корабля-спутника "Восток" является гражданин Союза Советских Социалистических Республик летчик майор ГАГАРИН Юрий Алексеевич".
(Из сообщения ТАСС)
Dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the first human space flight by Soviet man, communist Yuri Gagarin.
Music - G.Sviridov 'Time, forward!'
'On April 12, 1961, in the Soviet Union, the world's first satellite spaceship Vostok, with a man on board, was put inti orbit round the Earth.
The pilot of the Vostok is Major of the Air Force Yuri Alexeyevich Gagarin, a citizen of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics'
(From a TASS Report)

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